Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be.Oil production forecasts on which predictions of peak oil are based are sometimes made within a range which includes optimistic (higher production) and pessimistic (lower production) scenarios.
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As the industrial effort to extract new unconventional oil sources increases, this has a compounding negative effect on all sectors of the economy, leading to economic stagnation or even eventual contraction.
Such a scenario would result in an inability for national economies to pay high oil prices, leading to declining demand and a price collapse.
He wrote: "But if the curve is made to look reasonable, it is quite possible to adapt mathematical expressions to it and to determine, in this way, the peak dates corresponding to various ultimate recoverable reserve numbers" Hubbert used a semi-logistical curved model (sometimes incorrectly compared to a normal distribution).
He assumed the production rate of a limited resource would follow a roughly symmetrical distribution.
Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time.